Arsenal's Biggest Title Rival Is History, Not Manchester City

Arsenal begin this season with a trophy in the cabinet and a statistic hanging over them. The club has been champion of England 14 times, a total only Liverpool and Manchester United (20) beat, and not once since 1934-35 has it held on to the title. Nine championships have come and gone since, Arsene Wenger's unbeaten side of 2003-04 included, and every one of them was handed back a year later.

Mikel Arteta knows it, and said so after the 3-0 Community Shield win over Manchester City.

"We want to go straight again. We know the difficulty of the task. We've never done it at this club, to win it again. We know that it's going to demand something special, and we are ready for it."

• Mikel Arteta, Arsenal manager

Why the second season is the hard one

Danny Simpson won the title with Leicester City in 2016, then watched the defence collapse into a 12th-place finish, the worst by any Premier League champion.

"Once you get that gold champions badge on your sleeve, everything changes. Everybody wants to beat you, and Arsenal will find that out quickly."

• Danny Simpson, Premier League winner with Leicester City

Leicester lost the Community Shield, lost their opening league game, and had four defeats on the board by mid-October. Simpson points to two things that broke them: recruitment that did not work, and a European schedule the squad had never had to absorb.

Wes Brown, a five-time champion at Old Trafford, frames it as an internal problem rather than an external one.

"You have to remember what got you there in the first place - the determination, the willingness to run more than the man you are up against - especially when you think it will be easy, because there will always be a defeat that can come out of nowhere."

• Wes Brown, five-time Premier League winner

The Ferguson envelope

Sir Alex Ferguson's answer to complacency became folklore. On the first day of pre-season after United ended their 26-year wait in 1993, he told his squad he had written three names on a piece of paper and sealed it in an envelope: the three players who would let the club down that season.

There was no paper and there was no envelope. Ferguson admitted as much later.

"It was just a challenge to them. Because dealing with success is not easy."

• Sir Alex Ferguson, former Manchester United manager

Arteta has never been shy of the same kind of theatre - the training-ground dog named "Win" being the obvious example - and Brown believes the manager is Arsenal's edge here.

• Arteta built this squad rather than inheriting it.
• He reaches seven years in the job in December.
• The next longest-serving Big Six manager is Michael Carrick, appointed by United in January.

Everyone else is starting again

Xabi Alonso is new at Chelsea, Andoni Iraola new at Liverpool, Enzo Maresca new at Manchester City. Roberto De Zerbi took Tottenham over on 31 March with the club in a relegation fight. Every direct rival is installing new ideas and systems while Arsenal simply carry on.

Aston Villa, with Unai Emery approaching four years in charge in November, might have been the exception. Instead they have been stripped for parts: Morgan Rogers to Chelsea, Youri Tielemans to Manchester United, Lucas Digne to Paris Saint-Germain, Ezri Konsa to Arsenal, and Ollie Watkins linked with a move to Saudi Arabia. The Europa League winners opened with a 4-0 defeat at Brighton.

The first weekend backed that reading. Arsenal beat promoted Coventry City 3-0. Liverpool drew at Newcastle. Manchester United lost at Hull, Tottenham lost to Brentford, and only City won, needing a late comeback at home to Bournemouth.

The squad is the difference

Steve Nicol, a four-time champion with Liverpool, sees the usual traps but not the usual vulnerability.

"Some guys will be injured, some guys will be out of form, you make a couple of signings that don't work. But Arsenal are, by some distance, the best team with the strongest squad this season."

• Steve Nicol, ESPN FC analyst and four-time title winner

Nicol contrasts that with Liverpool, whose recruitment misfired as champions last season and who finished fifth, 25 points behind Arsenal, after opening with six straight wins. Arsenal, he argues, have not signed a player who failed to improve them in years, and Bruno Guimaraes continues the pattern.

What he does flag is the thing no spreadsheet catches.

"Complacency is the one thing that can trip Arsenal up. I don't see Arteta or his coaches allowing that to happen, but they need to have their eyes and ears open on the training ground."

• Steve Nicol, ESPN FC analyst

He tells a story from his own Liverpool days: finishing a training drill, rejoining the line, and coach Roy Evans walking over with one question - "Was that it?" Nothing more was needed. The players knew they were being watched every second.

Key facts at a glance

• Arsenal have not retained an English league title since 1934-35.
• Only Ferguson, Mourinho and Guardiola have defended the Premier League; since 1960 only Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have gone back-to-back in England.
• Wenger won three titles at Arsenal and retained none, including with the 2003-04 Invincibles.
• Arsenal opened with a 3-0 Community Shield win over City and a 3-0 league win over Coventry.
• Guimaraes and Konsa are this summer's headline additions.
• Rule changes on time-wasting and grappling at corners may force tweaks, but are unlikely to decide the race.

History says the champions come back down. Arsenal spent 22 years being told the same thing about winning it in the first place.

Source: ESPN (Mark Ogden)